Master probability table

This page gathers every probability in the game in one place, grouped by system. The values are the current defaults; many can change during events.

Shiny

A shiny is the top of the top: an independent per-encounter draw that multiplies the rolled rarity, so the two stack.

What it is	Chance	Translation
Wild shiny (per defeated enemy)	1 in 28,800	~0.0035% · ≈ 1 in 28,800
Shiny from breeding (Masuda, ×6)	1 in 28,800, times 6	~0.021% · ≈ 1 in 4,800
Shiny from breeding, BOTH parents shiny (×6 ×4)	1 in 28,800, times 6 and times 4	~0.083% · ≈ 1 in 1,200
Shiny from a raid capture	0.4% times 3% (see Raids)	~0.012% · ≈ 1 in 8,333 per win

The raid shiny uses its own chance and does not track the wild shiny chance.
Shiny status multiplier: ×1.45 on base stats (+45%), applied on top of the monster's rarity. An Astral shiny lands at 1.28 × 1.45 = ×1.86.
Shiny is the hardest find of the hunt: about 14 times rarer than Astral (1 in 1,989) and still stronger than it.
Every shiny sighting (caught or not) is logged. Details in Shiny.

Rarity (stat tiers on a wild appearance)

Each wild individual rolls a rarity tier. The tier sets a base-stat multiplier.

Tier	Base mult	Chance	Translation
Comum (Common)	1.00	77.25%	~1 in 1.3
Incomum (Uncommon)	1.03	16.82%	~1 in 6
Raro (Rare)	1.06	4.55%	≈ 1 in 22
Épico (Epic)	1.10	0.82%	≈ 1 in 122
Prismático (Prismatic)	1.15	0.38%	≈ 1 in 260
Mítico (Mythic)	1.21	0.12%	≈ 1 in 810
Astral	1.28	0.050%	≈ 1 in 1,989
Divino (Divine)	1.36	never spawns	Laboratory fusion only
Shiny	1.45	its own draw, 1 in 28,800	seal: multiplies rarity
Founder	1.50	founder-only	seal: multiplies rarity
Genesis	1.42	Genesis Pack only	seal: multiplies rarity

Seals multiply the tier instead of replacing it: Astral shiny = 1.28 × 1.45 = ×1.86; Astral founder = 1.28 × 1.50 = ×1.92; Astral Genesis = 1.28 × 1.42 = ×1.82.

Details in Stats.

Catching (per throw)

Every ball throw has a success chance that depends on the ball's power, whether its type matches the target, how tough the species is, and the target's rarity. The rarer the target, the harder it is to catch.

Master Ball = guaranteed catch in the world and in the Boss Room. It does not work on shinies, in raids, on Urban Legends or on Mega form bosses.
Every throw spends the ball, whether it catches or not.
Using a ball that matches the target's type gives a 1.6x bonus to the chance.
The chance against a catchable legendary is capped at 4% per throw.

Ball power: Poké 1 · Great 3 · Ultra 8 · Master (guaranteed).

Rarity penalty (the higher, the harder to catch):

Comum	Incomum	Raro	Épico	Prismático	Mítico	Astral	Divino
1	10	26	39	90	174	283	386

Examples (an average-difficulty species, Ultra Ball, team at level):

Target	Chance per throw
Common	~11.3%
Uncommon	~1.13%
Rare	~0.436%
Epic	~0.088%
Shiny	depends on the species POWER: from 65% (the weakest) to 4% (the strongest)

Team level: a team below the target's level catches less. Up to 10% below changes nothing; at 75% of the level the chance drops 42%, at 50% it drops 83%, and the worst case possible is a 98% drop. The Master Ball ignores this rule.

Time to catch one of each tier (appearance × catching, average species, Ultra Ball, team at level):

Tier	Hunt time
Uncommon	~1 hour
Rare	~9 hours
Epic	~5 days
Prismatic	~15 days
Mythic	~2 months
Astral	~6 months

Full table in Catching; per-species difficulty in Catch rates.

Chests (drop and rarity)

Items only arrive sealed inside chests. A chest drops per defeated enemy; its rarity is rolled the moment it drops.

What it is	Chance	Translation
Chest drop (per enemy)	rises with the map level, and falls if you hunt below your own level (floor: 40%)	≈ 1 chest every 345 kills on a level 3 map, 152 at level 50, 81 above level 155
Rarity bias	rises with the region level and with your loot bonus	only promotes chests to better tiers (never inflates Comum)

Chest rarity, by map level:

Rarity	Level 3 map	Level 50	Level 100	Level 150 or more	Count multiplier
Comum	~84%	~69%	~54%	~41%	1x
Raro	~13%	~20%	~23%	~23%	1.5x
Épico	~2.8%	~8.1%	~14%	~20%	2x
Lendário	~0.6%	~3.3%	~8.6%	~16%	3x

Each rarity has its own stock, starting at 5 chests per rarity (raised by the Logistics talents); a chest dropping on a full stock is lost. Details in Chests and boxes.

Loot inside a chest

Every chest delivers one prize, drawn from the lines below. The chest type (element of the monster that dropped it) themes stones, gems, TMs and boosters.

Prize	Comum	Raro	Épico	Lendário
Exp Candy	51%	25.2%	10.2%	2.5%
Poké Balls (batch)	20%	18%	14%	13%
Revives (batch)	9%	8%	4.5%	2.5%
Potions (batch)	5.5%	4.5%	1.5%	0.5%
Vitamin (+EVs)	0%	0%	13%	14%
Evolution stone (matching type)	0%	8%	11%	13%
Gem (damage buff)	6%	19%	13.2%	6.5%
Fusion Core (Lab)	0%	2%	6%	8%
Held item (passive)	0%	3%	4%	7%
Fossil	0%	2%	3.5%	5%
Sigil (move socket)	0%	0%	4%	6%
Rare Candy (10% of a level)	0%	0%	3%	5.5%
TM disc (type-themed)	2.5%	4.5%	5%	6%
Mega Stone Fragment	0%	0%	1%	3%
Essence of Life (breeding)	0%	0%	0%	0.8%
Arena Ticket (+1 PvP attack)	0%	0.8%	1.8%	3%

Exp Candy: Comum 1 small; Raro 60% (1–2 small) / 40% (1 medium); Épico 1 medium; Lendário 1 large.
Revives: Comum 3; Raro 4; Épico 5; Lendário 8 Revives or (50%) 4 Max Revives.
Potions: Comum 4 Potions; Raro 6 Super Potions; Épico 8 Hyper Potions; Lendário 12 Hyper Potions or (50%) 6 Full Restores.
Lendário held item: 50% it is one of {Choice Band, Leftovers, Lucky Egg}, else the type booster.
If the drawn line has no possible item for that chest, Exp Candy comes out instead. A chest is never empty.

Balls inside a chest

When the ball line is drawn, balls come in a batch:

Rarity	Batch	Ball
Comum	10	Poké Ball
Raro	15	Great Ball
Épico	20	40% Ultra Ball, 60% Great Ball
Lendário	30	40% Ultra Ball, 60% Great Ball

Master Ball: when a Lendário chest draws the ball line (12%), there is a 0.58% chance of 1 Master Ball instead of the batch, which is 0.07% of Lendário chests. In the Arena Campeão chest the chance is 1% per chest.
Astral Ball: when the ball line comes up in a Lendário, there is a 12% chance of 1 Astral coming along, without taking anyone's slot.

Master Ball & Divino sources (the unique items)

Item	How to get it	Real rarity
Master Ball	Lendário chest and Campeão chest (never sold); + level 35 of the Battle Pass; + 1 in the Founders kit	0.07% of Lendário chests (≈ 1 every 54,000 chests on a level 50 map and 1 every 16,000 on a level 100) and 1% of Campeão chests. The guaranteed source is the Battle Pass.
Divino (tier)	Only as the Laboratory fusion jackpot	See below
Essence of Life	0.8% of Lendário chests	≈ 1 every 3,900 chests on a level 50 map and 1 every 1,450 on a level 100

Where you hunt matters more than luck: since the Essence only comes out of Lendário chests, and a Lendário is 2.6 times more likely at level 100 than at level 50, moving up a map beats opening more chests. For the Master Ball not even that is enough: count on level 35 of the Battle Pass.

Laboratory fusion

Sacrifice 9 identical mons (same species, same rarity, none shiny) + 1 Fusion Core to synthesize a new one. Odds harshen as the input tier climbs.

Input tier	UP (+1)	JACKPOT (+2)	FAIL (same tier)
Comum	60%	5%	35%
Incomum	55%	5%	40%
Raro	50%	4%	46%
Épico	42%	3%	55%
Prismático	35%	2%	63%
Mítico	28%	1.5%	70.5%
Astral	20%	0%	80%

At Astral the JACKPOT is forced to 0 (it would overshoot Divino). Fusion is the only source of Divino.
The output is a fresh individual (random IVs/nature, 0 EVs, its own shiny roll); level = average of the 9 sacrificed. Details in Fossils, Lab and Box.

Breeding (eggs)

What it is	Chance	Translation
Tier up	15% (30% if parents are the same tier)	same-tier parents → 30% up
Tier down	35%	same-tier parents → 35% down
Same tier	the remainder	same-tier parents → 35% same
IVs inherited	3 of the 6 stats copy a parent	coin flip per stat
Nature	50/50 from one parent
Shiny (Masuda)	1 in 28,800, times 6, or times 6 and times 4 if both parents are shiny	≈ 1 in 4,800 / ≈ 1 in 1,200

Offspring rarity is centered on the better parent and capped at Astral (Divino is Lab-only). Hatch time by rarity: Common 6 h · Uncommon 18 h · Rare 2 d · Epic 6 d · Prismatic 12 d · Mythic 20 d · Astral 30 d. Details in Breeding.

Branching evolution determination

Some evolutions happen on their own, the player does not choose:

Species	Trigger	How it decides
Tyrogue (Lv 20)	trained stats	Atk > Def → Hitmonlee · Atk < Def → Hitmonchan · Atk = Def → Hitmontop
Wurmple (Lv 7)	fixed at birth	Silcoon or Cascoon, decided once and never changes

Other branches (Eevee, Gloom, Poliwhirl, Slowpoke, Clamperl) are player-chosen with the right stone. Details in Evolution.

Raids: legendary capture

A boss is a super-buffed legendary; parties of 4 fight their own instances.

What it is	Chance	Translation
Capture the legendary (per member, on win only)	0.4%	≈ 1 in 250 wins
The capture being shiny	3% of captures	⇒ 1 shiny every 8,333 member-wins
Delivered legendary level	80	(the prize has normal stats, is soulbound)

A win also pays gold per member: 60 gold for every level of the boss (5,100 to 6,000 for Lv 85 to 100 bosses), plus a victory chest (tier 5, which bypasses the chest cap). A loss: 0 gold, no chest.
Spawn frequency: 3 to 4 spawns per day, spread across the full 24 hours (overnight included), 45 min duration. Details in Raids and legendaries.

Fainting and the exp penalty

If enemy pressure outpaces your sustain, the lead faints and loses career exp.

Constant	Value	Meaning
Faint penalty	10% of remaining total exp per faint (compounding)
Min level	10	below Lv 10 a faint is free
Floor	Lv 5	a death loop never drops you below Lv 5's exp
Mult with Revive	1.0	full penalty (10%)
Mult with Max Revive	0.3	only 3% instead of 10%
No revive (unblessed)	1.0	full penalty

In levels the loss is ~0.16 level at Lv 5 and ~0.7 at Lv 100. Details in Enemy threat and fainting.

Crit, variance and combat luck

Where	What it is	Value
Hunt	Crit chance (Precisão/Executor talents)	cap 75%
Hunt	Crit multiplier	×1.75 (+75%)
Arena	Crit chance	8% per hit
Arena	Crit multiplier	×1.75
Arena	Damage variance	±15% (roll in [0.85 , 1.0])

STAB (a move matching the user's own type) = ×1.5. Details in Damage formula and Talents.

Arena: rating and leagues

Calculated instantly, with no live battle. No material reward: the prize is rating and league standing only.

What it is	Value
Rating floor (everyone starts here)	1000
Attacker win (vs equal or stronger)	+10 to +12
Attacker win (vs weaker)	between +5 and +10, lower the bigger the strength gap
Attacker loss	0 (attacking is riskless; the cost is the ticket)
Defeated defender	loses at least 3 points (scales with how much the attacker gained)
Round cap	30; if it goes past that, the defender wins (anti-stall)
Daily tickets	5 (reset in America/Sao_Paulo)
Extra attacks	only via the Arena Ticket item (drops from Rare+ chests), up to 3 per day

Leagues: Bronze 0 · Prata 1150 · Ouro 1350 · Diamante 1600 · Lenda 1900. Details in PvP Arena.

IVs, EVs and Nature

What it is	Value
IV per stat (6 stats)	uniform in [0, 31], fixed at birth
Starting EVs	0 (max 252/stat, 510 total)
Nature	uniform over 25 natures; each raises one stat +10% and lowers another −10% (5 are neutral)
Wild level	close to the region's base level, with a minimum spread of 2 levels (about 15% of the base level in higher regions)

Encounter & time

What it is	Value
Hunt target-species weight	×4 over the normal weight
Poké Ball regen	+1 every 30 min, cap 25
Offline cap	12h (raised by talents/premium)
Offline yield	×0.8 (an offline window earns 80% of live)

Daily Gift (milestones)

The 28-day calendar delivers chests on days 7 (Rare), 21 (Epic), 26 (Legendary) and 20 Safira on day 28. The daily stipend (every 20h) gives 15 Poké Balls + 3 Revives + 10 Potions. Details in Daily and tasks.

Refer-a-friend

What it is	Value
Reward	10% of the base Safira of the referred friend's 1st purchase
Min / max	10 / 200 Safira
Rewarded-friend cap	50 distinct

Details in Founders and referral.